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How plausible are high-risk events affecting the various interests?

The Study adopted a decision-scaling approach to defining climate risk to help move towards a strategy for adaptive management. The approach begins with stakeholders and determines their domain of vulnerabilities, and then assesses whether those conditions are possible or plausible based on the available climate science. With the series of possible future water supply scenarios developed by the Study using a variety of techniques, researchers developed a model to estimate the frequency of negative impact occurrences as a function of changes in climate, using the coping zones developed by the technical work groups to define negative impacts on the various interest groups. Given that it was not possible to estimate probabilities of future climate conditions due to the high-degree of uncertainty in these predictions, the researchers instead developed subjective probabilities of future climate states, based on a compilation of climate information. These subjective probabilities were termed plausibilities and were used for sensitivity analysis in place of formally evaluating risk.
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Risk Assessment & Decision Making under Uncertainty