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What impacts could climate variations have on levels?

Anthropogenic forcing of the climate system due to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other gases are likely to lead to increased probabilities that by sometime in the 21st century the climate state in the upper Great Lakes basin will be outside the envelope of historically-observed conditions. The third theme of the Study’s hydroclimatic analysis involved addressing the plausibility and scope of climate change impacts on NBS and water levels in the upper Great Lakes basin. The Study employed a number of approaches to address the possible impacts of climate change, including evaluating the validity of numerous model runs from GCMs and the applicability of utilizing the entire dataset or a subset of the runs. In addition, two RCMs were utilized to assess and derive down-scaled climate scenarios and current and future NBS sequences. It soon became clear that despite these efforts, in terms of understanding the lakes system relative to lake levels, the unavoidable conclusion is that Great Lakes are a complex system whose dynamics are only partially understood, and as a result the current state of understanding has its limitations for deriving predictions of the future.
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