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Plan 2012 performs similar to Plan 77A under 20th century NBS



Details
After hundreds of iterations and refinements and using a variety of scientific approaches, five final candidate regulation plans were identified (including the existing Plan 1977A and Nat64D, the precursor to what would become the recommended Lake Superior Plan 2012), and these showed significant differences in levels and outcomes only during extreme water supply conditions, attesting both to the soundness of Plan 77A and the influence of conflicting objectives that made it difficult to provide benefits in one area without adversely affecting another. As a result, the recommended plan will perform in a similar manner as the existing plan if future water supplies are similar to those that have been experienced since 1900. In fact, under most NBS conditions, there will be little difference between Lake Superior Regulation Plan 2012 and Plan 1977A. About two-thirds of the time, Lake Superior levels under the new plan will be within 2.5 cm (1 in) of the levels they would be under 1977A and 94 percent of the time, the levels of the two plans will be within about 5 cm (2 in) of each other. Where the new plan produces slightly better average economic benefits than 1977A over the 1,308 months of the simulation, the monthly benefits from 1977A are still slightly better than the new plan nearly one-half of those 1,308 months.
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