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Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust

Limitations in model projections of future hydroclimate conditions result in significant uncertainty beyond the next 30 years. While lower levels are likely, the possibility of higher levels cannot be dismissed. Both possibilities must be considered in the development of a new regulation plan. Therefore, in terms of water management and lake regulation, the best approach is to make decisions in such a way as to not overly rely on assumptions of particular future climatic and lake level conditions or specific model projections. Robustness – the capacity to meet regulation objectives under a broad range of possible future water level conditions – must be a primary attribute of any new regulation plan. As a result, the Study Board considered four scenarios that encompass the widest range of plausible futures. Each is based on a different hypothesis about the impact of varying climate, and represented by a subset of NBS data series from different models selected to test plans under each scenario. For the Study Board to endorse a plan, the plan had to perform as well as any other plan for all four of the scenarios.
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