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Residual NBS
Component NBS Uncertainty
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Hydroclimate Synthesis and Summary

Uncertainty in Lake Erie Net Basin Supplies as Estimated Using the Residual Method



Contributors
Jacob Bruxer;Syed M. A. Moin, Yiping Guo
Abstract
An uncertainty analysis was performed on the residual method of computing Lake Erie NBS. Uncertainties in each of the various inputs, including the inflows, outflows, and change in storage, among other sources, were first defined through analysis of data, when available, or with alternative methods when necessary. Overall results obtained using both the First-Order Second Moment method and a Monte Carlo simulation approach were found to be nearly identical. Comparison of the results of this study to the results from other research showed that the overall uncertainties in NBS are of similar magnitude. However, the uncertainty in the change in storage was found to be greater than estimates given in previous studies, and greater than perhaps generally believed, being of a similar magnitude to the uncertainty in the Lake Erie inflows and outflows, which have normally been cited as the greatest sources of uncertainty in Lake Erie residual NBS.
Reports:
Uncertainty of Lake Erie Residual Net Basin Supplies
Ecosystem PI 17: Wetland Vegetation, Long Point Area
Viewable Data:
Coordinated Residual Net Basin Supplies
Presentations:
Uncertainty in Lake Erie Residual Net Basin Supplies
Additional Data and Information

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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What are the historical NBS estimates & how have changes affected lake levels?
Recommendations
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Tasks
Assessing Reliability of Historical Data