Search:
Filter results by:
Topic
Recommendations
Key Findings
Tasks
Questions we Asked
Issues
Stakeholders
Geographic Area

Search for the following document types:

Uncertainty Analysis of GLERL's Component Net Basin Supply Estimates



Contributors
Carlo DeMarchi;Tim Hunter, Qiang Dai, Mary Mello
Abstract
The algorithms employed by GLERL to estimate Great Lakes net basin supplies were analyzed to evaluate the uncertainty in the modelled NBS results, which are widely used for analyzing the Great Lakes water balance. The evaluation focused on methods used to estimate runoff and over-lake precipitation. Uncertainty in runoff estimates was determined from a combination of assumed uncertainty estimates for gauged basin runoff, with uncertainty in ungauged basins determined using a leave-one-out Monte Carlo analysis. Uncertainty in precipitation was estimated by comparing GLERL’s estimates to precipitation estimates from more advanced models which incorporate short-term forecast and radar data. Uncertainty in evaporation was not computed directly in this analysis, but rather estimated from previous studies. Stochastic estimates of GLERL NBS were computed from the uncertainty information obtained for each component, and biases between the deterministic and stochastic results were identified.
Reports:
Estimating Overlake Precipitation and Runoff Uncertainty
Additional Data and Information

Can't find what you're looking for? Want additional data, models or other information related to this project? This may be available upon request. Please send specific requests using the request button below:
Send Request
Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What are the historical NBS estimates & how have changes affected lake levels?
Recommendations
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Tasks
Assessing Reliability of Historical Data