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Stochastic Generation and Forecasting of Net Basin Supplies



Contributors
Taha Ouarda;Ousmane Seidou, Taesam Lee
Abstract
Studies of the relationships between climate indices and Great Lakes net basin supplies were conducted and models developed for the purposes of predicting and generating synthetic time series of NBS for water management study purposes. Monthly ENSO and PDO indexes showed the most significant teleconnection with NBS, and models were developed to predict these indexes, and subsequently NBS. Additional studies involved development of stochastic models where the apparent nonstationary in the mean of annual NBS is explained using climate related variables. A 50000 years-long series of synthetic annual ENSO values was generated from which monthly and quarter-monthly NBS time series were determined. Subsequently the effects of climate change were included in the generation procedure by linking annual NBS to a list of variables that could be obtained from climate model outputs for both present and future climates.
Reports:
Stochastic Generation of Synthetic Residual NBS
Predictability of Climate Indices with Models
Additional Data and Information

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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
Key Findings
Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
Changes in levels may not be as extreme in the near-term as previously predicted
View all 3 key findings
Lake levels are unpredictable
Recommendations
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Tasks
Hydrological Modelling
Assessing Climate Change Impacts
View all 4 tasks
Water Supply Sequences
Forecasting