View larger image
Stochastic Generation and Forecasting of Net Basin Supplies
- Studies of the relationships between climate indices and Great Lakes net basin supplies were conducted and models developed for the purposes of predicting and generating synthetic time series of NBS for water management study purposes. Monthly ENSO and PDO indexes showed the most significant teleconnection with NBS, and models were developed to predict these indexes, and subsequently NBS. Additional studies involved development of stochastic models where the apparent nonstationary in the mean of annual NBS is explained using climate related variables. A 50000 years-long series of synthetic annual ENSO values was generated from which monthly and quarter-monthly NBS time series were determined. Subsequently the effects of climate change were included in the generation procedure by linking annual NBS to a list of variables that could be obtained from climate model outputs for both present and future climates.
- Stochastic Generation of Synthetic Residual NBS
- Predictability of Climate Indices with Models
- Additional Data and Information
Can't find what you're looking for? Want additional data, models or other information related to this project? This may be available upon request. Please send specific requests using the request button below:
- Supporting Content
- Main Topics
- - Hydroclimate Information
- Questions We Asked
- - What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
- - What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
- Key Findings
- - Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
- - Changes in levels may not be as extreme in the near-term as previously predicted
- - Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
- - Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts