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Sensitivity Analysis of the Lake Erie Water Balance

Frank H. Quinn;
An analysis of the Lake Erie water balance was conducted to determine Lake Erie inflows from the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers and to simulate corresponding Lake Michigan-Huron levels for the period 1948-2006. The analysis indicated that the present low water episode on Lake Michigan-Huron was primarily the result of low water supplies and not major changes to the St. Clair River flow regime. To address questions on the robustness of the analysis, the impact of uncertainty in the component net basin supplies on the simulated Lake Michigan-Huron levels was examined through sensitivity analysis. Results confirmed that the major lowering episode beginning in the late 1900s was primarily due to natural changes in the Great Lakes water supplies and not to major changes in the St. Clair River flow regime.
Lake Erie Water Balance Sensitivity Analysis
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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
St. Clair River
Questions We Asked
How has climate affected Michigan-Huron and Erie level relationship?
Key Findings
Hydroclimate accounts for 9-17 cm of total head decline
Remedial measures should not be taken in the St. Clair
Hydroclimatic Patterns and Trends Analysis