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MESH Component NBS
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Hydroclimate Synthesis and Summary

Seasonal Forecasting of Upper Great Lakes Net Basin Supplies



Contributors
Yasir Kaheil;Vincent Fortin, Hai Lin, Ken Snelgrove
Abstract
In this project, the skill of the GEM atmospheric model was assessed for seasonal forecasting of net basin supplies. Significant skill is only found for Lake Superior freshet volume (April through August), and forecast busts are frequent during El Nino and La Nina years. In practice, it is recommended to only use a categorical forecast (below/above average NBS) issued in December (less risk of a forecast bust), which can be updated in March to a deterministic forecast in neutral years (non-El Niño and non-La Nina years).
Reports:
Seasonal Forecasting of Lake Superior Net Basin Supply
Additional Data and Information

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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
Can a regulation plan be designed to perform better than Plan 1977A?
Key Findings
Lake levels are unpredictable
Recommendations
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Tasks
Forecasting