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Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Climate Change Uncertainty

Casey Brown;Paul Moody, Jesus Morales, Danica Lefever
The International Upper Great Lakes Study spent several million dollars on instruments, models and studies to upgrade our understanding of Great Lakes hydroclimatology and to better understand the implications of climate change. This project summarized the use of those findings within a process that was developed and applied for decisions regarding the future regulation of the Upper Great Lakes. It includes a critical review of the hydroclimate data developed and used in the IUGLS, an explanation of how the coping zones were applied in assessing risk, and a Climate Response Function that predicts coping zone occurrence based on three climate input variables from 30 year net basin supply series
Decision Making under Climate Change Uncertainty Synthesis
Hydroclimate Synthesis
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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Lake Superior Regulation
Hydroclimate Information
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Adaptive Management
Questions We Asked
How vulnerable are interest groups to extremes?
How plausible are high-risk events affecting the various interests?
View all 5 questions we asked
Can Lake Superior regulation address extremes?
What is adaptive management's role in addressing extremes?
What are the elements of an effective adaptive management strategy?
Key Findings
Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
Changes in levels may not be as extreme in the near-term as previously predicted
View all 4 key findings
Interests can adapt to historical range of levels; beyond this adaptive responses may be required
Adaptive management has an important role in addressing risk
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
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Apply adaptive management to address extremes
Risk Evaluation & Plausibility
Coping Zones
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Adaptive Management