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Paleo-reconstructed Net Basin Supply Scenarios for the Upper Great Lakes

Casey Brown;Yonas Ghile, Paul Moody
Paleo-reconstructed NBS scenarios for the upper Great Lakes were developed using the stochastic simulation framework of Prairie et al. (2008), which consists of a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to simulate the climate state using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)-reconstructed data, and K-nearest neighbour to resample observational NBS magnitudes conditioned on the climate state. The method was applied to generate 500 plausible, 100-year long monthly NBS sequences. The simulations generally preserved the statistics of the observed record while generating new variability statistics. Paleo-reconstructed hydrologic records offer the potential to evaluate water resources system performance under conditions that may be more extreme than seen in the historical record, as they provide a broader estimate of the likelihood of extreme lake levels and their persistence in time.
Paleo-Reconstructed Great Lakes Net Basin Supply
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Paleo-Reconstructed NBS
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Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What are the historical NBS estimates & how have changes affected lake levels?
What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
View all 3 questions we asked
What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
Key Findings
Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Water Supply Sequences