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Paleo-reconstructed Net Basin Supply Scenarios for the Upper Great Lakes
- Paleo-reconstructed NBS scenarios for the upper Great Lakes were developed using the stochastic simulation framework of Prairie et al. (2008), which consists of a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to simulate the climate state using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)-reconstructed data, and K-nearest neighbour to resample observational NBS magnitudes conditioned on the climate state. The method was applied to generate 500 plausible, 100-year long monthly NBS sequences. The simulations generally preserved the statistics of the observed record while generating new variability statistics. Paleo-reconstructed hydrologic records offer the potential to evaluate water resources system performance under conditions that may be more extreme than seen in the historical record, as they provide a broader estimate of the likelihood of extreme lake levels and their persistence in time.
- Viewable Data:
- Paleo-Reconstructed NBS
- Additional Data and Information
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- Supporting Content
- Main Topics
- - Hydroclimate Information
- Questions We Asked
- - What are the historical NBS estimates & how have changes affected lake levels?
- - What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
- - Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
- - Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
- - Water Supply Sequences