Search:
Filter results by:
Topic
Recommendations
Key Findings
Tasks
Questions we Asked
Issues
Stakeholders
Geographic Area

Search for the following document types:

Paleo-reconstructed Net Basin Supply Scenarios for the Upper Great Lakes



Contributors
Casey Brown;Yonas Ghile, Paul Moody
Abstract
Paleo-reconstructed NBS scenarios for the upper Great Lakes were developed using the stochastic simulation framework of Prairie et al. (2008), which consists of a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to simulate the climate state using Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)-reconstructed data, and K-nearest neighbour to resample observational NBS magnitudes conditioned on the climate state. The method was applied to generate 500 plausible, 100-year long monthly NBS sequences. The simulations generally preserved the statistics of the observed record while generating new variability statistics. Paleo-reconstructed hydrologic records offer the potential to evaluate water resources system performance under conditions that may be more extreme than seen in the historical record, as they provide a broader estimate of the likelihood of extreme lake levels and their persistence in time.
Reports:
Paleo-Reconstructed Great Lakes Net Basin Supply
Viewable Data:
Paleo-Reconstructed NBS
Additional Data and Information

Can't find what you're looking for? Want additional data, models or other information related to this project? This may be available upon request. Please send specific requests using the request button below:
Send Request
Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What are the historical NBS estimates & how have changes affected lake levels?
What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
View all 3 questions we asked
What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
Key Findings
Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
Recommendations
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Tasks
Water Supply Sequences