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Hydrometeorological Modelling and Component NBS using Environment Canada's MESH Modelling System

Vincent Fortin;Chris Spence, DaNeil Deacu, Syd Peel, Yasir Kaheil, Hai Lin, Dorothée Charpentier, Erika Klyszejko, Alain Pietroniro
A 5-year hindcast of net basin supplies was produced using the GEM atmospheric model coupled to the MESH hydrological model, covering the period of June 2004 to May 2009. Estimates of precipitation, runoff and lake evaporation were produced for the period and compared to previous estimates by GLERL and to the coordinated residual NBS estimates. Over that five year period, MESH component NBS were found to agree better with residual NBS estimates than GLERL's component NBS. No calibration to residual NBS was necessary. An attempt to estimate uncertainty was performed using ensemble forecasts. This work aided attempts to close the water balance and improve NBS estimates in the Great Lakes region.
MESH Model for Hindcasting and Forecasting NBS
Viewable Data:
MESH Monthly Component Net Basin Supplies
GEM, CaPA and MESH to Predict Great Lakes NBS
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Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What are the historical NBS estimates & how have changes affected lake levels?
What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
View all 3 questions we asked
What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
Key Findings
Increasing evaporation and precipitation are offsetting, except on Superior
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Understanding the Water Balance
Assessing Reliability of Historical Data
View all 4 tasks
Hydrological Modelling
Water Supply Sequences