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Future Economic Scenarios



Contributors
John Hoehn;Mitchell Horrie, Mark Dunning
Abstract
Economic scenarios for the upper Great Lakes region for the next 40 years were developed for adaptive management purposes. These scenarios are not forecasts, but rather projections of long-term trends and shocks recorded from past economic expansion and contraction. Trends are regular patterns of growth that continue over a given time period. A shock is a deviation from annual trend growth. Shocks occur for a variety of reasons. Contractions and recessions are negative shocks. Expansions, booms, and bubbles are positive shocks. The future is certain to bring surprises, including economic change. The purpose of this analysis was therefore to outline a range of likely economic surprises in order to develop plans that are robust to economic change and variability.
Reports:
Future Economic Scenarios
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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Adaptive Management
Questions We Asked
What is adaptive management's role in addressing extremes?
What are the elements of an effective adaptive management strategy?
Key Findings
Adaptive management has an important role in addressing risk
Adaptive management requires improved data, science, collaboration & integration
Tasks
Adaptive Management