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Dynamical Downscaling of Future Climate Data using the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Murray MacKay;Frank Seglenieks
Dynamical downscaling using the Canadian Regional Climate Model was conducted to estimate future NBS. Both medium and high resolution downscaling was performed. For all the lakes, a small decrease in the annual NBS was seen in the future climate. Monthly NBS data suggest an amplified seasonal cycle, and that changes are not uniform throughout the year, with declines in NBS largely concentrated during late summer- early fall (the annual minimum period) and increases during winter and spring. Changes in the annual lake levels were found to decrease by only a few centimeters on average in the future time slice. Like NBS, monthly lake levels showed an amplified seasonal cycle in the future, with the largest declines in winter and slight increases in summer.
Simulating NBS with the CRCM: Current Climate Conditions
Simulating NBS and Lake Levels: Climate Change Analysis
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Future NBS and Lake Levels: CRCM Downscaling Results
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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
Key Findings
Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
Changes in levels may not be as extreme in the near-term as previously predicted
View all 3 key findings
Lake levels are unpredictable
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Understanding the Water Balance
Hydrological Modelling
View all 4 tasks
Assessing Climate Change Impacts
Water Supply Sequences