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Analysis to Improve Plan Formulation with Forecasting

Casey Brown;Paul Moody
The concept of a dynamic regulation plan, in which the plan would have rules that vary based on the prevailing climate conditions and possibly a forecast of future climate conditions, has been proposed as a means to increase the range of acceptable regulation plan performance. A dynamic regulation plan can be conceptualized having two aspects: a short term change in releases based on a short term forecast (< 1 year ahead); and a major change in regulation strategy based on evidence of a major climate shift. This study focused on the first of these aspects. In an initial analysis, results showed that for certain years, a correct forecast could lower high lake levels by 3 – 6 cm and increase low lake levels by 2 – 5 cm on Lake Superior while having minimal impact on downstream lakes.
Forecast-based Adaptive Management of Lake Superior
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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Lake Superior Regulation
Adaptive Management
Questions We Asked
Can a regulation plan be designed to perform better than Plan 1977A?
Key Findings
Lake levels are unpredictable
Plan Formulation & Evaluation