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- Input Projects
- MESH Component NBS
- Climate Data Downscaling using CRCM
Analysis of the Angel and Kunkel Runs of Future Lake Levels and NBS in the Laurentian Great Lakes
- Results from a study by Angel and Kunkel (2010) on future NBS and lake levels were investigated. Angel and Kunkel used GLERL’s Advanced Hydrological Prediction System and output from 23 GCMs to calculate change functions relative to the current climate and estimate NBS and lake levels for future climates. Their results show an exaggerated seasonal cycle in some NBS components, which is similar to results found from GCM runs downscaled using RCMs. For lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron, there is a general trend toward higher NBS and runoff in winter and spring, and lower values in summer and fall. For Lake Erie the trend is for lower NBS and runoff in all periods except winter. For precipitation and evaporation, values are generally higher in the future time slice in all seasons. Annual difference in NBS between future and current time slices for each GCM show a greater range between different GCMs and different members of the same GCM than between the different downscaling methods.
- Additional Data and Information
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- Supporting Content
- Main Topics
- - Hydroclimate Information
- Questions We Asked
- - What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
- - What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
- Key Findings
- - Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
- - Changes in levels may not be as extreme in the near-term as previously predicted
- - Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
- - Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts