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Analysis of the Angel and Kunkel Runs of Future Lake Levels and NBS in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Frank Seglenieks;Murray MacKay
Results from a study by Angel and Kunkel (2010) on future NBS and lake levels were investigated. Angel and Kunkel used GLERL’s Advanced Hydrological Prediction System and output from 23 GCMs to calculate change functions relative to the current climate and estimate NBS and lake levels for future climates. Their results show an exaggerated seasonal cycle in some NBS components, which is similar to results found from GCM runs downscaled using RCMs. For lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron, there is a general trend toward higher NBS and runoff in winter and spring, and lower values in summer and fall. For Lake Erie the trend is for lower NBS and runoff in all periods except winter. For precipitation and evaporation, values are generally higher in the future time slice in all seasons. Annual difference in NBS between future and current time slices for each GCM show a greater range between different GCMs and different members of the same GCM than between the different downscaling methods.
Analysis of Angel and Kunkel Future Lake Levels and NBS
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Future NBS and Lake Levels: Angel and Kunkel (2010) Re-analysis Results
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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
Hydroclimate Information
Questions We Asked
What impacts could climate variations have on regulation?
What impacts could climate variations have on levels?
Key Findings
Future conditions are uncertain, so a new regulation plan must be robust
Changes in levels may not be as extreme in the near-term as previously predicted
View all 3 key findings
Lake levels are unpredictable
Approve Lake Superior Plan 2012
Improve understanding of hydroclimatic processes & impacts
Understanding the Water Balance
Hydrological Modelling
View all 4 tasks
Assessing Climate Change Impacts
Water Supply Sequences