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Analysis of Changes in the Great Lakes Net Basin Supply Components and Explanatory Variables

Taha Ouarda;Eghbal Ehsanzadeh, Hadiza Saley, Naveed Khaliq, Ousmane Seidou, Christian Charron, Deborah Lee, Alain Pietroniro
An analysis of changes in Great Lakes NBS and hydro-climatic variables was performed to investigate impacts of possible climate change on natural processes in the Great Lakes basin. The main focus was on NBS and water levels, but other variables such as runoff, precipitation, evaporation, change in storage, connecting channel flows, diversions, over basin temperature, and water temperatures were also analyzed. Making use of a nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test, the time series were tested for trends under independence, short term persistence, and long term persistence hypotheses. As the principal variables under study, a shift detection analysis was performed on the NBS and water level time series as well. Trends and change points were identified and discussed for a number of variables.
Changes in NBS Components and Explanatory Variables
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GLERL Monthly Component Net Basin Supplies
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Supporting Content (Show)
Main Topics
St. Clair River
Questions We Asked
How has climate affected Michigan-Huron and Erie level relationship?
Key Findings
Hydroclimate accounts for 9-17 cm of total head decline
Remedial measures should not be taken in the St. Clair
Hydroclimatic Patterns and Trends Analysis