By Jeff Kart
November 17, 2010
When the International Upper Great Lakes Study ends, the work of implementing a new Lake Superior regulation plan will begin. That's where “Adaptive Management” comes in.
Adaptive Management can be described as “learning to manage by managing to learn,” explains Wendy Leger, the Canadian co-lead for the Study's Adaptive Management Group.
That means finding out where imperfect understanding is most likely to lead to an undesirable outcome, then creating a focused research and monitoring program to improve understanding and reduce that risk. This increases the payoff from learning, and if funds are tight, helps make sure the most important research is funded.
“After the Study Board releases its recommendation (in the summer of 2011) and a new Lake Superior regulation plan is implemented, we want to follow up to make sure the plan is meeting the intended objectives,” Leger said.
The Adaptive Management Plan covers three possibilities: Lake Superior regulation, controlling levels on other Great Lakes with new regulation structures, and reducing negative impacts without new control structures, said Jennifer Read, the U.S. co-lead for the Adaptive Management Group.
“We recognize that there are risks that still need to be addressed beyond what the Lake Superior outflow regulations can handle,” Read said. “We are working with other agencies to see how we can pool what we know and work together to reduce these risks.”
So far, the Study has documented how changes in the St. Clair River have reduced water levels on Lakes Michigan and Huron. Its investigations into the effects of climate change on the lakes are the most detailed of any to date, and suggest that water levels might not drop as previous studies have indicated.
The Study also has created a forum in which work done by U.S. and Canadian scientists on glacial isostatic adjustment – the rising and falling of land around the Great Lakes still recovering from the weight of glaciers from thousands of years ago – can be used by water resource managers.
Leger said the Study is taking a different approach toward the risks of water levels higher or lower than any seen in the 20th Century.
“The key message from the Study scientists is that we should not be too presumptuous about our ability to predict the effects of climate change, and it would be risky to prepare for only the futures the models predict,” she said.
“So we are looking at how we can respond to extreme events that scientists say are plausible, even if the models don’t predict they are likely to occur. If we can address these extreme risks with a small change in plans, we need to do so.”
Adaptive Management can be described as “learning to manage by managing to learn,” explains Wendy Leger, the Canadian co-lead for the Study's Adaptive Management Group.
That means finding out where imperfect understanding is most likely to lead to an undesirable outcome, then creating a focused research and monitoring program to improve understanding and reduce that risk. This increases the payoff from learning, and if funds are tight, helps make sure the most important research is funded.
“After the Study Board releases its recommendation (in the summer of 2011) and a new Lake Superior regulation plan is implemented, we want to follow up to make sure the plan is meeting the intended objectives,” Leger said.
The Adaptive Management Plan covers three possibilities: Lake Superior regulation, controlling levels on other Great Lakes with new regulation structures, and reducing negative impacts without new control structures, said Jennifer Read, the U.S. co-lead for the Adaptive Management Group.
“We recognize that there are risks that still need to be addressed beyond what the Lake Superior outflow regulations can handle,” Read said. “We are working with other agencies to see how we can pool what we know and work together to reduce these risks.”
So far, the Study has documented how changes in the St. Clair River have reduced water levels on Lakes Michigan and Huron. Its investigations into the effects of climate change on the lakes are the most detailed of any to date, and suggest that water levels might not drop as previous studies have indicated.
The Study also has created a forum in which work done by U.S. and Canadian scientists on glacial isostatic adjustment – the rising and falling of land around the Great Lakes still recovering from the weight of glaciers from thousands of years ago – can be used by water resource managers.
Leger said the Study is taking a different approach toward the risks of water levels higher or lower than any seen in the 20th Century.
“The key message from the Study scientists is that we should not be too presumptuous about our ability to predict the effects of climate change, and it would be risky to prepare for only the futures the models predict,” she said.
“So we are looking at how we can respond to extreme events that scientists say are plausible, even if the models don’t predict they are likely to occur. If we can address these extreme risks with a small change in plans, we need to do so.”